History shows that some of the biggest economic tragedies occured because policy makers were too quick to claim victory. This happened during the Great Depression when policy makers, thinking the recession was over, tightened policy too quickly in 1937. It occured again in the mid-1970s when restrictive monetary policy was reversed at the first signs inflation was easing.

In both cases, the economic crises policy was meant to fix – economic depression and inflation – resurged and became decade-dominating forces.