National has lost 2 seats, while TMP has gained 2, and the Green party has gained 1. NACT now need NZF to govern.
Rachel Boyack has won Nelson by 21 votes, and Phil Twyford has won Te Atatū by 131 votes.
122 seats because of the overhang, which will rise to 123 after the Port Waikato by-election.
I’m so happy with this. NZF screw everything they touch so making National and Act work with NZF is going to stick on their craw. its beautiful. but then a right wing government truly sucks. expect more asset sales and more crappy policies helping the rich and screwing the poor. just a shame we didn’t get enough for labour/tmp/green coalition hopefully they’ll fuck up so badly everyone goes green/red next election
Winston’s never really been one to go for asset sales etc. Setting aside his current populism around the covid, trans rights etc he’s usually been relatively centrist in an old fashioned Conservative type of way. Ie, not really that centrist if you’re a marxist, but usually not a full on beneficiary basher like NAct.
I do really worry about his even more extreme populist bent this time around, and really worry for the marginalised communities that a lot of that shittiness gets directed at.
Biggest disappointment is turnout. 72% is the lowest of the MMP era by a long way…
I also love how Luxon kept saying “The special vote counting is taking too long! Wah!” and now he’s like “This is very serious, we need to take our time forming a government”… classic upper management 🤣
Edit: the RNZ article is possibly wrong about turnout, I think it’s 78.2% (they said 72.8%)… can’t find the official figure though.
It was a bit of a giant douche VS turd sandwich situation, to be fair.
Edit: the RNZ article is possibly wrong about turnout, I think it’s 78.2% (they said 72.8%)… can’t find the official figure though.
You’re right, they have typo’d it. It’s listed at 78.2% on this page (official media release).
I’m honestly not sure what to think about this. I think NZ First’s involvement will temper some policies, but they are again in a position of a lot of power. Plus, I’m sure Act had previously said the will refuse to work with NZF so coalition agreements may take some time. Honestly it may be easier to go with a Labour/National coalition 😆
It’s only dumb because those two parties only real reason for existence these days is in opposition to each other as the natural parties of government (in their minds).
If National jettisoned the religious fundamentalists, now Labour has lurched to the right in an ill advised attempt to not lose the election there’s even less between the two of them. Mostly just old fashioned racism really holding them back from being the same thing.
Yeah, they are closer to each other than other parties but that two sides mentality holds back a Labour/National coalition. I’d love for it to happen though, even just to see if it worked.
I’d like them to both splinter and form new modern versions of themselves rather than holding on to something 100 years old that bears little relevance to modern problems.
I suspect we have already started to see the splintering. Both National and Labour are much smaller than they have been in previous years.
And of course Labour already went through some of this with Act, Alliance, Greens etc all coming out of their ructions from the end of the 80s. But unfortunately the two brands remain; sucking most of the financial support and media narrative out of our political environment.
Greens actually get donations on par with (and sometimes more than) Labour. And the same with Act and National, though their donations are many times what Labour/Greens get. And if you count the unreported donations to their lobbying arm you’d probably find Act gets the largest share of the donation money.
I’m sure Act had previously said the will refuse to work with NZF so coalition agreements may take some time
My suspicion is we’re about to see that a lot of what Seymour says is bluster. He’s also threatened to sit on the cross-benches and only support the government vote by vote. I doubt very much he’ll stick to that, but we’ll see I guess.
Either way, Act are potentially setting themselves up to fail. They’ve promised a lot, but probably won’t be able to deliver on much of it (e.g. treaty referendum, much weaker climate policy). Minor coalition partners can find themselves badly punished by voters if they’re not careful. Greens have managed to do a good job in recent years, but Act may not be able to do the same.
My suspicion is we’re about to see that a lot of what Seymour says is bluster
He apparently changed his mind already: ACT’s David Seymour reverses rule-out of working with Winston Peters in Cabinet
It will be interesting to see. By my count, National could go with NZF and TPM to form a government. While National has ruled out working with TPM, if Act are too unreasonable or difficult to work with, it could end up back on the table.
TPM are a very different party than they were during the Key era. It would be very difficult for National & TPM to work together on anything but a handful of issues. It would probably be easier for National to work with the Greens.
Yeah, true. Only other option would be Labour, Greens, TPM, NZF. Not outside the realm of possibility but I’d say very unlikely. I think Labour would feel a term or two out of government would be better for their popularity than sneaking their way back in with such a deal. And I’m pretty sure Winnie said no to working with Labour (not that it means anything).
Another election is also possible, and I’d say more likely than NZF going with labour. NZF will come around eventually to a deal with National. They know the alternatives could be bad for them. Same for Act
I wish we would get nat/lab coalition.
Any hope of nat/green?
National’s candidates come across as very right wing to me, to the point that many I would guess would be happier in Act but had more chance of getting into parliament with National. I don’t think there is a world where a Luxon-led National would work with the Greens.
The Greens run coalition agreements as an internal democracy, so their membership would have to vote in favour. I can’t really see that happening
I find it quite funny TPM are coded brown in the graph.
Less funny that prick Winston is back in power.
