I don’t agree with this author’s position, but this is a point we need to discuss. Fragmentation is a real danger. It has happened in Burma’s history over hundreds of years. It can happen again. I disagree with the author that the fragmentation narrative supports the Junta.
Fragmentation is real. There are more than a dozen Ethnic Armed Organizations (EAOs) and private armies in Burma. All have different agendas. We have seen that there are clashes even within alliances. 3 Brothers Alliance is not allied with NUG. EAOs like the United Wa State Army are content with the status quo of having their own independent defacto state, being China’s defacto colony but with political autonomy. (The Kokangs are currently moving in that direction after re-taking the region recently with the participation in 3 Brother Alliance offensive). Bringing all the disparate forces together to form a federal government will be difficult. But isn’t that what a federal government is - a union with each state having a certain autonomy?
It really depends on the true goal of EAOs’ leadership. Are the EAOs interested in participating in a federal government, or are they seeking political autonomy within a state like what the Wa enjoys, or complete independence?
I don’t agree with this author’s position, but this is a point we need to discuss. Fragmentation is a real danger. It has happened in Burma’s history over hundreds of years. It can happen again. I disagree with the author that the fragmentation narrative supports the Junta.
Fragmentation is real. There are more than a dozen Ethnic Armed Organizations (EAOs) and private armies in Burma. All have different agendas. We have seen that there are clashes even within alliances. 3 Brothers Alliance is not allied with NUG. EAOs like the United Wa State Army are content with the status quo of having their own independent defacto state, being China’s defacto colony but with political autonomy. (The Kokangs are currently moving in that direction after re-taking the region recently with the participation in 3 Brother Alliance offensive). Bringing all the disparate forces together to form a federal government will be difficult. But isn’t that what a federal government is - a union with each state having a certain autonomy?
It really depends on the true goal of EAOs’ leadership. Are the EAOs interested in participating in a federal government, or are they seeking political autonomy within a state like what the Wa enjoys, or complete independence?