Thats a great start, and realistically table stakes for just swapping out from one of the least popular Democrats in modern history. She’s made good rhetorical pivots on Palestine and on abortion. She should be fine, and while a lot of focus is on the VP, it really wont change much. VP’s are funny in that they get a ton of focus put on them but rarely offer much to a campaign.
Safety is in the +8-12 range. I think this is very easy for any non-octogenarian candidate whose policy positions align with the voters.
I’m as big a Harris supporter as anyone, but there is no chance of her posting +8 to +12 in PA except in a rare outlier poll. Biden won the state by 1% in 2020. I am cautiously optimistic she can improve on that by a couple percent but an Obama '08-style blowout is just not in the cards.
an Obama '08-style blowout is just not in the cards.
I haven’t written it out yet. There are points just available to either candidate if they reach out and grab them. Harris may not be an Obama, but Trump is deeply unpopular. Underestimating Trumps unpopularity would be as naive as underestimating Obama’s ability to move a crowd. But realistically, people are going to vote based on what impacts them directly in thier lives.
So…
How does Kamala get those points on the board? Abortion rights and supporting families.
The +4 is just switching out Biden. I think there is another +3-6 in making an extremely clear, articulate argument in favor of a women right to choose. This is something Kamala can do that no boring white-dude candidate can manifest. Its a very very material opportunity for a woman candidate in this particular race that wasn’t present previously. I think we’re massively underestimating the power of women voters to engage and become engaged this election cycle and that applies to all states and down ballot races. The overturning of Roe v Wade is creates the conditions necessary for a wave election. Thats my first +4 to +6. I think it might even be stronger than this, so I consider +4 to +6 a conservative estimate. And like with Trump voters, this is something that won’t be well represented in the polls because it will be specifically unlikely voters coming out in support. Kamala has a real grass roots moment forming up around her right now and if her team is smart, they can further activate unlikelies on this issue.
My second +4 to +6 is on paid family leave and the child tax credit. The child tax credit was an incredibly popular policy that made an immediate and material difference in peoples lives, that they can remember. It wasn’t that long ago. And it made a huge difference to poor families with several kids. She can and should definitely going to make this a central plank of her platform. Same goes for paid family leave, another incredibly popular policy. Make it a central tenent of the platform, and you’ll gather support from unlikelies.
So yeah, I’m not claiming its “for sure” going to be +8 for Kamala in PA. But there is a real path to getting to those kind of numbers that is immediately available to her. And I also think I’m underestimating the power Abortion as an issue will have to move voters, they just needed to be shown a real difference between the two candidates on the matter, and now they have that. Kamala can tell voters that if they give her a mandate, abortion as a constitutional right will be her entire job. She’ll get 60-70% of women from the age of 18-45 voting for her, maybe more. And that alone would be enough to deliver “stunning upset” level results.
So no, she’s not an Obama, but in the way the board is set up, I don’t know she needs to be. There is lots of low hanging fruit for her to work with that can she can use to build a strong lead.
Thats a great start, and realistically table stakes for just swapping out from one of the least popular Democrats in modern history. She’s made good rhetorical pivots on Palestine and on abortion. She should be fine, and while a lot of focus is on the VP, it really wont change much. VP’s are funny in that they get a ton of focus put on them but rarely offer much to a campaign.
Safety is in the +8-12 range. I think this is very easy for any non-octogenarian candidate whose policy positions align with the voters.
I’m as big a Harris supporter as anyone, but there is no chance of her posting +8 to +12 in PA except in a rare outlier poll. Biden won the state by 1% in 2020. I am cautiously optimistic she can improve on that by a couple percent but an Obama '08-style blowout is just not in the cards.
I haven’t written it out yet. There are points just available to either candidate if they reach out and grab them. Harris may not be an Obama, but Trump is deeply unpopular. Underestimating Trumps unpopularity would be as naive as underestimating Obama’s ability to move a crowd. But realistically, people are going to vote based on what impacts them directly in thier lives.
So…
How does Kamala get those points on the board? Abortion rights and supporting families.
The +4 is just switching out Biden. I think there is another +3-6 in making an extremely clear, articulate argument in favor of a women right to choose. This is something Kamala can do that no boring white-dude candidate can manifest. Its a very very material opportunity for a woman candidate in this particular race that wasn’t present previously. I think we’re massively underestimating the power of women voters to engage and become engaged this election cycle and that applies to all states and down ballot races. The overturning of Roe v Wade is creates the conditions necessary for a wave election. Thats my first +4 to +6. I think it might even be stronger than this, so I consider +4 to +6 a conservative estimate. And like with Trump voters, this is something that won’t be well represented in the polls because it will be specifically unlikely voters coming out in support. Kamala has a real grass roots moment forming up around her right now and if her team is smart, they can further activate unlikelies on this issue.
My second +4 to +6 is on paid family leave and the child tax credit. The child tax credit was an incredibly popular policy that made an immediate and material difference in peoples lives, that they can remember. It wasn’t that long ago. And it made a huge difference to poor families with several kids. She can and should definitely going to make this a central plank of her platform. Same goes for paid family leave, another incredibly popular policy. Make it a central tenent of the platform, and you’ll gather support from unlikelies.
So yeah, I’m not claiming its “for sure” going to be +8 for Kamala in PA. But there is a real path to getting to those kind of numbers that is immediately available to her. And I also think I’m underestimating the power Abortion as an issue will have to move voters, they just needed to be shown a real difference between the two candidates on the matter, and now they have that. Kamala can tell voters that if they give her a mandate, abortion as a constitutional right will be her entire job. She’ll get 60-70% of women from the age of 18-45 voting for her, maybe more. And that alone would be enough to deliver “stunning upset” level results.
So no, she’s not an Obama, but in the way the board is set up, I don’t know she needs to be. There is lots of low hanging fruit for her to work with that can she can use to build a strong lead.