Inflation is over, the administration crows, even as Congress works to pass another massive spending bill — this time, $1.7 trillion. But struggling families know not to pop the cork yet.

cross-posted from: https://exploding-heads.com/post/70089

Finally, even normalizing the inflation rate does not cancel the price hikes of the past two years. Since President Biden took office, the cumulative 13.8% inflation is roughly 10% higher than the baseline rate. This has cost the typical household approximately $10,000 over two years.

Those household costs will continue rising even if the inflation rate normalizes. That is because this recent extra 10% inflation will remain embedded in prices moving forward. Inflation rates may return to 2% or 3%, but they will be applied to a permanently elevated price level. And with wage growth notably slower than price growth over the past two years — producing the steepest decline in real wages in decades — most families will remain behind.