Inflation is over, the administration crows, even as Congress works to pass another massive spending bill — this time, $1.7 trillion. But struggling families know not to pop the cork yet.

Finally, even normalizing the inflation rate does not cancel the price hikes of the past two years. Since President Biden took office, the cumulative 13.8% inflation is roughly 10% higher than the baseline rate. This has cost the typical household approximately $10,000 over two years.

Those household costs will continue rising even if the inflation rate normalizes. That is because this recent extra 10% inflation will remain embedded in prices moving forward. Inflation rates may return to 2% or 3%, but they will be applied to a permanently elevated price level. And with wage growth notably slower than price growth over the past two years — producing the steepest decline in real wages in decades — most families will remain behind.