What you just described is basically a statistical tie and worse odds than what 538 (regardless of it no longer being Nate Silver’s original model) gave Hillary to win in 2016.
As I said, it’s not much better than a coin toss. And what you just linked to has trump winning 35% of the time. If you say it is going to go one way 35% of the time and it never goes that way, your models are bad because it should have been 0%.
What you just described is basically a statistical tie and worse odds than what 538 (regardless of it no longer being Nate Silver’s original model) gave Hillary to win in 2016.
As I said, it’s not much better than a coin toss. And what you just linked to has trump winning 35% of the time. If you say it is going to go one way 35% of the time and it never goes that way, your models are bad because it should have been 0%.
Also, polls were historically accurate in 2022.