Over the past two years I’ve learned that things do take longer to develop than you’d expect. That said, it does look like the rate of Russian advance has accelerated dramatically. From what I understand, taking Ugledar splits the front too so it will be very difficult for the AFU to support the troops in the south. There are no strongholds past it, so Russia can now just march all the way to Dnepr.
Furthermore, all the reports now say that the AFU is out of ammunition, and the troops aren’t motivated because there are large numbers of conscripts who’ve been dragged off the street with no training. Hence why we don’t see much resistance happening anymore. It used to take Russia months to storm a fortified town, and they ended up levelling it in the process. With the latest push in Ugledar, they basically just walked in and took it in tact in a few weeks. And this is a self-reinforcing phenomenon. The more strategic and fortified positions Ukraine loses, the less places they have to fall back to.
On top of all that, we have the cauldron in Kursk where Ukraine sent a bunch of its best troops and NATO equipment. Now, they can’t pull out politically, so thy managed to split their own dwindling forces for a PR stunt.
And of course, now there’s a high chance that Israel will start a war with Iran which means the US has to husband whatever weapons they have left for that.
Given all that, I expect that Russia will be in full control of Donbas in 3-4 months, and once that happens I think we might see Ukraine surrender. Their fighting capacity is likely going to be non existent by then. If they don’t then I would expect that Russia would move past big cities like Kharkov and Kiev, cutting them off from the west. They would also want to take Odessa because it connects to the sea and gives a route all the way to Transnistria.
My expectation is that Russia will take over parts of Ukraine that are either pro Russian or neutral, and then leave a rump western Ukraine for the west to deal with. The west will have no choice but to pour money into it to keep it on life support because otherwise there’s going to be a huge refugee crisis in Europe. However, I expect it’s going to be Europe stuck holding the bag either way here. So, the economic situation is only going to get worse.
There is a question of what the west does in response to Ukraine buckling. Personally, I don’t think boots on the ground are likely, but I wouldn’t entirely rule that out either. The hysteria is going to be incredible, so there’s a chance for a major escalation as a result.
I hope you’re right in it not being long. Do you have predictions? Months? Years?
Over the past two years I’ve learned that things do take longer to develop than you’d expect. That said, it does look like the rate of Russian advance has accelerated dramatically. From what I understand, taking Ugledar splits the front too so it will be very difficult for the AFU to support the troops in the south. There are no strongholds past it, so Russia can now just march all the way to Dnepr.
Furthermore, all the reports now say that the AFU is out of ammunition, and the troops aren’t motivated because there are large numbers of conscripts who’ve been dragged off the street with no training. Hence why we don’t see much resistance happening anymore. It used to take Russia months to storm a fortified town, and they ended up levelling it in the process. With the latest push in Ugledar, they basically just walked in and took it in tact in a few weeks. And this is a self-reinforcing phenomenon. The more strategic and fortified positions Ukraine loses, the less places they have to fall back to.
On top of all that, we have the cauldron in Kursk where Ukraine sent a bunch of its best troops and NATO equipment. Now, they can’t pull out politically, so thy managed to split their own dwindling forces for a PR stunt.
And of course, now there’s a high chance that Israel will start a war with Iran which means the US has to husband whatever weapons they have left for that.
Given all that, I expect that Russia will be in full control of Donbas in 3-4 months, and once that happens I think we might see Ukraine surrender. Their fighting capacity is likely going to be non existent by then. If they don’t then I would expect that Russia would move past big cities like Kharkov and Kiev, cutting them off from the west. They would also want to take Odessa because it connects to the sea and gives a route all the way to Transnistria.
My expectation is that Russia will take over parts of Ukraine that are either pro Russian or neutral, and then leave a rump western Ukraine for the west to deal with. The west will have no choice but to pour money into it to keep it on life support because otherwise there’s going to be a huge refugee crisis in Europe. However, I expect it’s going to be Europe stuck holding the bag either way here. So, the economic situation is only going to get worse.
There is a question of what the west does in response to Ukraine buckling. Personally, I don’t think boots on the ground are likely, but I wouldn’t entirely rule that out either. The hysteria is going to be incredible, so there’s a chance for a major escalation as a result.