Since 2021, when Algeria cut ties with Morocco, the two neighbours have been at odds. Thus far, their quarrels have largely remained in the diplomatic realm. Western countries should help keep a lid on the disputes until the time is ripe for a rapprochement.
What’s new?
Since 2021, Algeria and Morocco have been embroiled in a diplomatic crisis. Incidents in Western Sahara risk bringing the two countries to blows, and Rabat’s relations with Israel are a source of friction.
Why does it matter?
Mutual self-restraint and U.S. pressure have helped contain tensions between the countries, but escalatory pressures could undermine the status quo. Risk factors include a bilateral arms race, the spread of misinformation online, a surge of militancy among youth in Western Sahara’s pro-independence Polisario Front and the change in U.S. administrations.
What should be done?
Outside actors should stress the importance of protecting civilians and allowing the UN mission to operate effectively in Western Sahara. They should also keep engaging with the Algerian and Moroccan governments, calibrate arms sales and help relaunch UN-sponsored talks on Western Sahara to prevent further escalation.