Fair, I just think jumping to the conclusion that those folks would have come out to vote for Biden is a stretch when you look at how well his campaign was going. Worth remembering that Harris way outperformed Biden in terms of approval rating, which is a very imperfect metric, but the best one we have for guessing if folks would have come out to vote for Biden but stay home for Harris. In 2020, Biden was a challenger to an incumbent who was botching Covid from both a health and economy perspective. In 2024, he was an incumbent struggling to get out of the shadow of the global post-covid recession and some very unpopular decisions in foreign policy regarding the Middle East. Assuming he would have received 2020 levels of votes is not congruent with those facts
Her entire message was “I’m Biden, for a new generation”. “I can’t think of single thing I’d do differently”, other than put a republican in her cabinet. And with as much time as she spent with her, it was probably going to be a Cheney, cause they’ve always been so popular with the American electorate…
Biden was nearly net negative 20 favorability when he dropped out, with almost two-thirds of Americans feeling the country was on the wrong track. Incumbents do not win with those numbers, especially ones who can’t put together coherent sentences after 8pm.
Maybe I’m wrong, but I was thinking more in the sense that a lot of people stayed home instead of going out to vote for Harris.
Fair, I just think jumping to the conclusion that those folks would have come out to vote for Biden is a stretch when you look at how well his campaign was going. Worth remembering that Harris way outperformed Biden in terms of approval rating, which is a very imperfect metric, but the best one we have for guessing if folks would have come out to vote for Biden but stay home for Harris. In 2020, Biden was a challenger to an incumbent who was botching Covid from both a health and economy perspective. In 2024, he was an incumbent struggling to get out of the shadow of the global post-covid recession and some very unpopular decisions in foreign policy regarding the Middle East. Assuming he would have received 2020 levels of votes is not congruent with those facts
Her entire message was “I’m Biden, for a new generation”. “I can’t think of single thing I’d do differently”, other than put a republican in her cabinet. And with as much time as she spent with her, it was probably going to be a Cheney, cause they’ve always been so popular with the American electorate…
Biden was nearly net negative 20 favorability when he dropped out, with almost two-thirds of Americans feeling the country was on the wrong track. Incumbents do not win with those numbers, especially ones who can’t put together coherent sentences after 8pm.