It’s really hard to say right now. Russia seems to be taking a pragmatic stance on that. We can see how they’ve been dealing with Turkey for example, where they continue cooperation even as Turkey keeps playing games. What I expect Russia to try to do is to break up NATO and EU by peeling countries off. Hungary is the obvious choice, and they might be able to get them to flip. France, Bulgaria, Slovakia, and Germany might decide that they’ve had enough as well. Maybe one option could be that China steps in to provide some security guarantees, and a new security framework outside of NATO is created. Ultimately, Russia’s concern is with US and they don’t really see individual European countries as any real threat.
It’s really hard to say right now. Russia seems to be taking a pragmatic stance on that. We can see how they’ve been dealing with Turkey for example, where they continue cooperation even as Turkey keeps playing games. What I expect Russia to try to do is to break up NATO and EU by peeling countries off. Hungary is the obvious choice, and they might be able to get them to flip. France, Bulgaria, Slovakia, and Germany might decide that they’ve had enough as well. Maybe one option could be that China steps in to provide some security guarantees, and a new security framework outside of NATO is created. Ultimately, Russia’s concern is with US and they don’t really see individual European countries as any real threat.