The peer-reviewed study, "The Earth4All scenarios: Human well-being on a finite planet towards 2100," uses a system dynamics-based modeling approach to explore two future scenarios: Too Little Too Late, and the Giant Leap. The model presented in the paper provides the scientific basis for the analysis and policy recommendations of Earth for All: A Survival Guide for Humanity, published in 2022.

The model’s findings show that under our current “business as usual” conditions—the Too Little Too Late scenario—humanity risks a gradual slide into ever-worsening breakdowns: a steadily grayer and more fragmented world.

However, the Giant Leap scenario demonstrates that a window of opportunity still remains open for global action to reverse declining well-being trends, keep global warming below 2°C, reduce inequality, and create the conditions for sustained prosperity throughout the century.

The study identifies five “extraordinary turnarounds” which, if enacted simultaneously, could fundamentally alter humanity’s trajectory: ending poverty, reducing inequality, empowering women, and transforming global food and energy systems. “Extraordinary” refers to a substantial change in investments relative to the previous four decades.