National needs about $5 Billion in foreign property sales a year to reach its target. Prior to the 2018 ban, China (which likely can’t be taxed anyway due to FTA) made up 40% of an approximately $3.75 Billion in total sales. For Nationals numbers to work, the market would have to grown significantly, while leaving the vast majority of properties un-taxed. Further, they have not accounted for any drop in sales due to the tax, global downturn, or any other factors.
It’s pure fiction and smoke and mirrors.
I was thinking about this tax joke yesterday while watching a video on the huge pressure’s* China’s domestic real estate market is under currently.
Given how large that market is, and how much debt is held in it - its kinda hard to imagine Chinese buyers will even be back at 2018 levels, especially if their economy suffers even more wobbles.
*A lot of which the video argued was demographic and unlikely to be reversed any time soon due to the 1 child policy which was held onto for too long.