Hopefully soon, but it doesn’t very likely. North Korea doesn’t offer China anything special that they can’t get elsewhere, and the international cost of openly associating with an international phariah hardly seems worth the cost.
I don’t think China would threaten its economy and world standing for very little in return. One can hope though, North Korea could use the break.
I think DPRK is only seen as a pariah in the west to be honest. So, it’s all going to depend on how much China values western economic ties, and whether the west is in a position to even try putting economic pressure on China at this point. Western economies are heading into a deep recession already, and it’s only going to get worse going forward. Meanwhile, Russia has already broken the taboo on trading with DPRK, and nothing really changed for them geopolitically as a result.
True, but pound for pound the western economy still dwarfs China significantly, and it is unlikely they would risk their current lucrative position like that. I could see them attempting to or planning for that contingency in the near future, but current there really doesn’t seem like they’d gain much from poking the hornets nest and rocking the boat currently.
Also Russia doesn’t really export much beyond agricultural products and resources, and their other customers are mainly non-western so them trading with North Korea does little in that situation. However, China’s main markets are still by far the United States and Europe, meaning China is probably going to be a lot more sensitive to changes from those markets.
Not to mention that China and the West hold significant investment in each other, which makes it a dangerous game of chicken.
It’s a bit of apples to oranges comparison though. All of the west is a bigger economic bloc than China alone, but it is smaller than the BRICS. China is also a vast industrial economy, while most of western GDP comes from ephemeral things like the service industry, media, and software startups. In terms of actual productive economy, China may well be bigger.
One illustrative example is steel production which is a decent proxy for industrial activity. US yearly production is comparable to Russia, while China is an order of magnitude higher. Aside from US, there aren’t any major industrial nations in the west at this point. Especially with Germany becoming deindustrialized.
This is important because the west is reliant on imports for a lot of basic necessities, and much of the stuff people in the west consume is produced in China. So, cutting China off would have absolutely catastrophic impact on the west.
While you’re right that Russian situation isn’t the same as China, I’d argue that a similar principle applies as we’ve seen European economies suffer greatly after being cut off from Russian resources. The impact of trying to decouple from China would be even worse, and it would be compounded by the decoupling from Russia that’s already happened.
Also worth noting that China has been actively developing things like dual circulation and BRI precisely because they’ve already been worried about a potential trade war with the west. These are measures taken specifically to insulate China from the impact of that. I imagine China’s also been watching how Russian economy readjusted and taking notes.
Even if the west doesn’t end up seeking active decoupling from China, an economic crash in the western economic system might end up having the same net effect in the end. If US goes into a deep recession next year for example, then consumer demand will drop sharply and that will mean a drop in imports from China. One way or another, China has to find ways to insulate itself and to create new markets.
DPRK shouldn’t be overlooked as a trade partner in my opinion. It has a sizeable population of 25 million. It has a lot of skilled labour, and a high degree of industrialization. Now that there’s open trade with Russia, I expect their economy will start improving rapidly going forward.
Hopefully soon, but it doesn’t very likely. North Korea doesn’t offer China anything special that they can’t get elsewhere, and the international cost of openly associating with an international phariah hardly seems worth the cost.
I don’t think China would threaten its economy and world standing for very little in return. One can hope though, North Korea could use the break.
I think DPRK is only seen as a pariah in the west to be honest. So, it’s all going to depend on how much China values western economic ties, and whether the west is in a position to even try putting economic pressure on China at this point. Western economies are heading into a deep recession already, and it’s only going to get worse going forward. Meanwhile, Russia has already broken the taboo on trading with DPRK, and nothing really changed for them geopolitically as a result.
True, but pound for pound the western economy still dwarfs China significantly, and it is unlikely they would risk their current lucrative position like that. I could see them attempting to or planning for that contingency in the near future, but current there really doesn’t seem like they’d gain much from poking the hornets nest and rocking the boat currently.
Also Russia doesn’t really export much beyond agricultural products and resources, and their other customers are mainly non-western so them trading with North Korea does little in that situation. However, China’s main markets are still by far the United States and Europe, meaning China is probably going to be a lot more sensitive to changes from those markets. Not to mention that China and the West hold significant investment in each other, which makes it a dangerous game of chicken.
It’s a bit of apples to oranges comparison though. All of the west is a bigger economic bloc than China alone, but it is smaller than the BRICS. China is also a vast industrial economy, while most of western GDP comes from ephemeral things like the service industry, media, and software startups. In terms of actual productive economy, China may well be bigger.
One illustrative example is steel production which is a decent proxy for industrial activity. US yearly production is comparable to Russia, while China is an order of magnitude higher. Aside from US, there aren’t any major industrial nations in the west at this point. Especially with Germany becoming deindustrialized.
This is important because the west is reliant on imports for a lot of basic necessities, and much of the stuff people in the west consume is produced in China. So, cutting China off would have absolutely catastrophic impact on the west.
While you’re right that Russian situation isn’t the same as China, I’d argue that a similar principle applies as we’ve seen European economies suffer greatly after being cut off from Russian resources. The impact of trying to decouple from China would be even worse, and it would be compounded by the decoupling from Russia that’s already happened.
Also worth noting that China has been actively developing things like dual circulation and BRI precisely because they’ve already been worried about a potential trade war with the west. These are measures taken specifically to insulate China from the impact of that. I imagine China’s also been watching how Russian economy readjusted and taking notes.
Even if the west doesn’t end up seeking active decoupling from China, an economic crash in the western economic system might end up having the same net effect in the end. If US goes into a deep recession next year for example, then consumer demand will drop sharply and that will mean a drop in imports from China. One way or another, China has to find ways to insulate itself and to create new markets.
DPRK shouldn’t be overlooked as a trade partner in my opinion. It has a sizeable population of 25 million. It has a lot of skilled labour, and a high degree of industrialization. Now that there’s open trade with Russia, I expect their economy will start improving rapidly going forward.