Is Russia going to go on another offensive? My understanding is they pretty much have what they wanted and are just setting up defenses now until the west gets bored of selling ukraine tanks, continuously improving their negotiating position for when the war ends.
I don’t think their goal was ever taking all of ukraine outside of the liberal think pieces that say they’re going to use it as a springboard to try to roll tanks into Paris.
They’ve strongly hinted that a big offensive is coming in the near future. Some of the recent comments talked about Odessa and Kharkov regions, there was also a recruitment video that talked about taking Kiev. Some other indirect hints have been that Russia stopped exporting diesel likely indicating they’re stockpiling it, and they also slowed down with missile strikes which means they’re piling them up for a potential big strike that could be the opening of the offensive.
Ukraine has basically blown through all the weapons the west managed to scrape up for the offensive at this point, and this goes hand in hand with suffering serious losses in manpower. The west now admits that they can’t keep supplying Ukraine at the same level as before, and there is no time to train up a new army even if people were available.
On the other hand, Russian industry is rapidly expanding and the army size is estimated at around 400k at this point. This puts Russia in a very strong position to do an offensive of their own now. I don’t expect that Russia plans to take all of Ukraine, but I expect what will happen is that Russia will create a land corridor all the way to Transnistria in the south which involves taking Odessa. And then they will take more eastern regions in the north. They will likely stop in western Ukraine which were formerly parts of Galicia and where anti Russian sentiment is the strongest.
These would become a land locked rump state that the west will be left to deal with. The west will have to choose either letting it collapse economically resulting in a flood of refugees to Europe, or having it become an economic black hole that will need constant propping up.
Russia is doing shaping operations right now all across the front line, and they’re likely waiting for the mud season to be over and for the ground to harden before starting major operations. Once the ground hardens next month, we’ll see if Russia decides to make a big push.
Those two would be logical, both have significant Russian minority and a lot more of Russian-speakers, so they always were pro-Russian. Also Odessa is a major port, economic center, and strategic city.
Exactly, these seem the most obvious places, and a lot will depend on the state of the Ukrainian army and the economy in the next few months. It’s entirely possible that either Ukrainian army collapses due to lack of resources and manpower or that Ukrainian economy crashes because US funding gets cut off. At that point Russia can dictate any terms they want unilaterally.
They will likely stop in western Ukraine which were formerly parts of Galicia and where anti Russian sentiment is the strongest.
These would become a land locked rump state that the west will be left to deal with. The west will have to choose either letting it collapse economically resulting in a flood of refugees to Europe, or having it become an economic black hole that will need constant propping up.
What worries me is what will the remaining neo-nazi do? Given that fascists are cowards, there is surely going to be a lot of them who will see the writing on the wall and flee the battle, in which case there might be a bunch of them left after the war end, probably in this western region. What will these neo-nazi salty of having just lost their “glorious” ethnostate do? My best guess is that they will probably try to reorganize whatever effectives they have left, maybe reorganize the ukrainian government if they still have control of it of try to get back control if not. As the nationalists that they are, they would want to get back the rest of ukraine, but being of course unable to do so they will resort to carry out terror campaign in an act of revenge against both Russia for having invaded them and the EU and NATO for not having supported them enough of for having backstabbed them (since nazi love blaming their Ls on imaginary foe acting from the shadows). They will use western ukraine as a base to launch these terror campaign, making them like some kind of european ISIS.
I think that the nazis will start causing terror all across Europe is a very likely scenario. They will feel betrayed by the west, and they’ve already been establishing links with western nazis all around Europe. Millions of people fled to Europe from Ukraine, and there certainly were many nazis amongst them. Also worth keeping in mind that a huge number of weapons sent to Ukraine ends up going missing, and I’m sure a lot of these weapons have already made their way to terror cells across Europe. The west has unleashed a monster in Ukraine, and it’s inevitably going to bite the hand that’s been feeding it.
Is Russia going to go on another offensive? My understanding is they pretty much have what they wanted and are just setting up defenses now until the west gets bored of selling ukraine tanks, continuously improving their negotiating position for when the war ends.
I don’t think their goal was ever taking all of ukraine outside of the liberal think pieces that say they’re going to use it as a springboard to try to roll tanks into Paris.
They’ve strongly hinted that a big offensive is coming in the near future. Some of the recent comments talked about Odessa and Kharkov regions, there was also a recruitment video that talked about taking Kiev. Some other indirect hints have been that Russia stopped exporting diesel likely indicating they’re stockpiling it, and they also slowed down with missile strikes which means they’re piling them up for a potential big strike that could be the opening of the offensive.
Ukraine has basically blown through all the weapons the west managed to scrape up for the offensive at this point, and this goes hand in hand with suffering serious losses in manpower. The west now admits that they can’t keep supplying Ukraine at the same level as before, and there is no time to train up a new army even if people were available.
On the other hand, Russian industry is rapidly expanding and the army size is estimated at around 400k at this point. This puts Russia in a very strong position to do an offensive of their own now. I don’t expect that Russia plans to take all of Ukraine, but I expect what will happen is that Russia will create a land corridor all the way to Transnistria in the south which involves taking Odessa. And then they will take more eastern regions in the north. They will likely stop in western Ukraine which were formerly parts of Galicia and where anti Russian sentiment is the strongest.
These would become a land locked rump state that the west will be left to deal with. The west will have to choose either letting it collapse economically resulting in a flood of refugees to Europe, or having it become an economic black hole that will need constant propping up.
Russia is doing shaping operations right now all across the front line, and they’re likely waiting for the mud season to be over and for the ground to harden before starting major operations. Once the ground hardens next month, we’ll see if Russia decides to make a big push.
Those two would be logical, both have significant Russian minority and a lot more of Russian-speakers, so they always were pro-Russian. Also Odessa is a major port, economic center, and strategic city.
Exactly, these seem the most obvious places, and a lot will depend on the state of the Ukrainian army and the economy in the next few months. It’s entirely possible that either Ukrainian army collapses due to lack of resources and manpower or that Ukrainian economy crashes because US funding gets cut off. At that point Russia can dictate any terms they want unilaterally.
What worries me is what will the remaining neo-nazi do? Given that fascists are cowards, there is surely going to be a lot of them who will see the writing on the wall and flee the battle, in which case there might be a bunch of them left after the war end, probably in this western region. What will these neo-nazi salty of having just lost their “glorious” ethnostate do? My best guess is that they will probably try to reorganize whatever effectives they have left, maybe reorganize the ukrainian government if they still have control of it of try to get back control if not. As the nationalists that they are, they would want to get back the rest of ukraine, but being of course unable to do so they will resort to carry out terror campaign in an act of revenge against both Russia for having invaded them and the EU and NATO for not having supported them enough of for having backstabbed them (since nazi love blaming their Ls on imaginary foe acting from the shadows). They will use western ukraine as a base to launch these terror campaign, making them like some kind of european ISIS.
I think that the nazis will start causing terror all across Europe is a very likely scenario. They will feel betrayed by the west, and they’ve already been establishing links with western nazis all around Europe. Millions of people fled to Europe from Ukraine, and there certainly were many nazis amongst them. Also worth keeping in mind that a huge number of weapons sent to Ukraine ends up going missing, and I’m sure a lot of these weapons have already made their way to terror cells across Europe. The west has unleashed a monster in Ukraine, and it’s inevitably going to bite the hand that’s been feeding it.