I have seen a few mentions of these recent Pentagon leaks about Ukraine’s “spring counter-offensive” in the comments here so i gather that there are some comrades that have an interest for this sort of thing. From what i can tell this article does a good job summing up the most relevant big picture information that can be learned from these documents.
Warning: the author has thrown in a queerphobic “joke” for absolutely no reason which is very annoying and detracts from an otherwise professional piece.
I expect the counteroffensive will be the breaking point. This is the last big throw for Ukraine. The west managed to put together a hodgepodge of weapons for Ukraine, and do a rapid training course for the conscripts. They’re going to try to make some breakthrough that can be spun by western media as a big success.
However, as the leak alludes, the prospects of this happening are slim to none. The most likely scenario is that Ukraine makes some small gains and loses most of their available forces in the process. At that point the west will no longer be able to pull together enough resources to build yet another army for Ukraine.
On top of all that, US election campaigning is starting and the war is not popular in US any longer. Last poll I saw said that over 40% of people wanted the war to end even if it meant Ukraine giving up territory. Continuing to pour unlimited money into this will be impossible politically with republicans starting to make a connection between war spending and collapsing economy in US. Once US pulls money from Ukraine then the whole thing will end overnight.
Given all that, I think the war ending by fall is a very likely scenario.