It’s kind of hilarious how even mainstream western media is now openly saying that Russia is winning and that defeating Russia is magical thinking, but we still have hordes of libs running around who haven’t caught up with the latest official narrative.
I have at this point convinced my supervisor that communists have a limited capacity to predict the future, not because I talk to him about history and politics through a lens of scientific socialism all the time (I do, he’s very cool for a boomer lib) but mostly just because I am always way ahead of the news cycle as he consumes it.
I find systemic thinking is one of the key differences between the liberal world model and the dialectical one. Communists recognize that the structure of the system creates pressures on society, and people act according to those pressures. Meanwhile, the whole system evolves based on collective actions. So you have this dialectical progression towards the future of a dynamic and ever changing system.
On the other hand, liberals reject systemic thinking and see the society as simply a group of individuals each acting in their own best interest completely independent of one another. In this model there is no overarching system in play, and everything becomes a discrete event. Things like wars and economic crashes just randomly happen because of some random event like the pandemic or terrorist attacks. There is never a question of how things evolved to a point of a crisis and how things could’ve been done differently.
The liberal world view is infantile and we’re now seeing what an utter disaster this ideology has produced globally.
communists have a limited capacity to predict the future
They literally do. I was attracted to Dialectical Materialism because it’s pretty similar to models I used to predict the future before my political awakening. Once you realize just how predictable the world is, you start to notice patterns well before they manifest themselves.
Just like with Marx Kapital, I think even non-communists should learn about it just because of how useful it is in the real world.
“The west needs a new strategy against Russia, containment”
Aka setting it up ahead of time so they can paint Russia taking the territory they said they were going to in advance and then holding it is actually a win for us.
It’s kind of impressive how smoothly they transitioned from talking about Ukraine marching to Moscow to this whole nobody is winning and it’s actually a stalemate narrative. What’s going to be really interesting to see is the mental gymnastics they’re going to have to start doing once Russia goes on an actual offensive. This whole stalemate narrative never explains why Russia would be interested in any sort of a frozen conflict where the west gets to rearm Ukraine and to rebuild their army.
Is Russia going to go on another offensive? My understanding is they pretty much have what they wanted and are just setting up defenses now until the west gets bored of selling ukraine tanks, continuously improving their negotiating position for when the war ends.
I don’t think their goal was ever taking all of ukraine outside of the liberal think pieces that say they’re going to use it as a springboard to try to roll tanks into Paris.
They’ve strongly hinted that a big offensive is coming in the near future. Some of the recent comments talked about Odessa and Kharkov regions, there was also a recruitment video that talked about taking Kiev. Some other indirect hints have been that Russia stopped exporting diesel likely indicating they’re stockpiling it, and they also slowed down with missile strikes which means they’re piling them up for a potential big strike that could be the opening of the offensive.
Ukraine has basically blown through all the weapons the west managed to scrape up for the offensive at this point, and this goes hand in hand with suffering serious losses in manpower. The west now admits that they can’t keep supplying Ukraine at the same level as before, and there is no time to train up a new army even if people were available.
On the other hand, Russian industry is rapidly expanding and the army size is estimated at around 400k at this point. This puts Russia in a very strong position to do an offensive of their own now. I don’t expect that Russia plans to take all of Ukraine, but I expect what will happen is that Russia will create a land corridor all the way to Transnistria in the south which involves taking Odessa. And then they will take more eastern regions in the north. They will likely stop in western Ukraine which were formerly parts of Galicia and where anti Russian sentiment is the strongest.
These would become a land locked rump state that the west will be left to deal with. The west will have to choose either letting it collapse economically resulting in a flood of refugees to Europe, or having it become an economic black hole that will need constant propping up.
Russia is doing shaping operations right now all across the front line, and they’re likely waiting for the mud season to be over and for the ground to harden before starting major operations. Once the ground hardens next month, we’ll see if Russia decides to make a big push.
Those two would be logical, both have significant Russian minority and a lot more of Russian-speakers, so they always were pro-Russian. Also Odessa is a major port, economic center, and strategic city.
Exactly, these seem the most obvious places, and a lot will depend on the state of the Ukrainian army and the economy in the next few months. It’s entirely possible that either Ukrainian army collapses due to lack of resources and manpower or that Ukrainian economy crashes because US funding gets cut off. At that point Russia can dictate any terms they want unilaterally.
They will likely stop in western Ukraine which were formerly parts of Galicia and where anti Russian sentiment is the strongest.
These would become a land locked rump state that the west will be left to deal with. The west will have to choose either letting it collapse economically resulting in a flood of refugees to Europe, or having it become an economic black hole that will need constant propping up.
What worries me is what will the remaining neo-nazi do? Given that fascists are cowards, there is surely going to be a lot of them who will see the writing on the wall and flee the battle, in which case there might be a bunch of them left after the war end, probably in this western region. What will these neo-nazi salty of having just lost their “glorious” ethnostate do? My best guess is that they will probably try to reorganize whatever effectives they have left, maybe reorganize the ukrainian government if they still have control of it of try to get back control if not. As the nationalists that they are, they would want to get back the rest of ukraine, but being of course unable to do so they will resort to carry out terror campaign in an act of revenge against both Russia for having invaded them and the EU and NATO for not having supported them enough of for having backstabbed them (since nazi love blaming their Ls on imaginary foe acting from the shadows). They will use western ukraine as a base to launch these terror campaign, making them like some kind of european ISIS.
I think that the nazis will start causing terror all across Europe is a very likely scenario. They will feel betrayed by the west, and they’ve already been establishing links with western nazis all around Europe. Millions of people fled to Europe from Ukraine, and there certainly were many nazis amongst them. Also worth keeping in mind that a huge number of weapons sent to Ukraine ends up going missing, and I’m sure a lot of these weapons have already made their way to terror cells across Europe. The west has unleashed a monster in Ukraine, and it’s inevitably going to bite the hand that’s been feeding it.
It’s kind of hilarious how even mainstream western media is now openly saying that Russia is winning and that defeating Russia is magical thinking, but we still have hordes of libs running around who haven’t caught up with the latest official narrative.
I have at this point convinced my supervisor that communists have a limited capacity to predict the future, not because I talk to him about history and politics through a lens of scientific socialism all the time (I do, he’s very cool for a boomer lib) but mostly just because I am always way ahead of the news cycle as he consumes it.
I find systemic thinking is one of the key differences between the liberal world model and the dialectical one. Communists recognize that the structure of the system creates pressures on society, and people act according to those pressures. Meanwhile, the whole system evolves based on collective actions. So you have this dialectical progression towards the future of a dynamic and ever changing system.
On the other hand, liberals reject systemic thinking and see the society as simply a group of individuals each acting in their own best interest completely independent of one another. In this model there is no overarching system in play, and everything becomes a discrete event. Things like wars and economic crashes just randomly happen because of some random event like the pandemic or terrorist attacks. There is never a question of how things evolved to a point of a crisis and how things could’ve been done differently.
The liberal world view is infantile and we’re now seeing what an utter disaster this ideology has produced globally.
They literally do. I was attracted to Dialectical Materialism because it’s pretty similar to models I used to predict the future before my political awakening. Once you realize just how predictable the world is, you start to notice patterns well before they manifest themselves.
Just like with Marx Kapital, I think even non-communists should learn about it just because of how useful it is in the real world.
Fr? Media is really starting to admit?
very openly too, here are a couple of examples
Neat!
Lmao at the first one
“The west needs a new strategy against Russia, containment”
Aka setting it up ahead of time so they can paint Russia taking the territory they said they were going to in advance and then holding it is actually a win for us.
It’s kind of impressive how smoothly they transitioned from talking about Ukraine marching to Moscow to this whole nobody is winning and it’s actually a stalemate narrative. What’s going to be really interesting to see is the mental gymnastics they’re going to have to start doing once Russia goes on an actual offensive. This whole stalemate narrative never explains why Russia would be interested in any sort of a frozen conflict where the west gets to rearm Ukraine and to rebuild their army.
Is Russia going to go on another offensive? My understanding is they pretty much have what they wanted and are just setting up defenses now until the west gets bored of selling ukraine tanks, continuously improving their negotiating position for when the war ends.
I don’t think their goal was ever taking all of ukraine outside of the liberal think pieces that say they’re going to use it as a springboard to try to roll tanks into Paris.
They’ve strongly hinted that a big offensive is coming in the near future. Some of the recent comments talked about Odessa and Kharkov regions, there was also a recruitment video that talked about taking Kiev. Some other indirect hints have been that Russia stopped exporting diesel likely indicating they’re stockpiling it, and they also slowed down with missile strikes which means they’re piling them up for a potential big strike that could be the opening of the offensive.
Ukraine has basically blown through all the weapons the west managed to scrape up for the offensive at this point, and this goes hand in hand with suffering serious losses in manpower. The west now admits that they can’t keep supplying Ukraine at the same level as before, and there is no time to train up a new army even if people were available.
On the other hand, Russian industry is rapidly expanding and the army size is estimated at around 400k at this point. This puts Russia in a very strong position to do an offensive of their own now. I don’t expect that Russia plans to take all of Ukraine, but I expect what will happen is that Russia will create a land corridor all the way to Transnistria in the south which involves taking Odessa. And then they will take more eastern regions in the north. They will likely stop in western Ukraine which were formerly parts of Galicia and where anti Russian sentiment is the strongest.
These would become a land locked rump state that the west will be left to deal with. The west will have to choose either letting it collapse economically resulting in a flood of refugees to Europe, or having it become an economic black hole that will need constant propping up.
Russia is doing shaping operations right now all across the front line, and they’re likely waiting for the mud season to be over and for the ground to harden before starting major operations. Once the ground hardens next month, we’ll see if Russia decides to make a big push.
Those two would be logical, both have significant Russian minority and a lot more of Russian-speakers, so they always were pro-Russian. Also Odessa is a major port, economic center, and strategic city.
Exactly, these seem the most obvious places, and a lot will depend on the state of the Ukrainian army and the economy in the next few months. It’s entirely possible that either Ukrainian army collapses due to lack of resources and manpower or that Ukrainian economy crashes because US funding gets cut off. At that point Russia can dictate any terms they want unilaterally.
What worries me is what will the remaining neo-nazi do? Given that fascists are cowards, there is surely going to be a lot of them who will see the writing on the wall and flee the battle, in which case there might be a bunch of them left after the war end, probably in this western region. What will these neo-nazi salty of having just lost their “glorious” ethnostate do? My best guess is that they will probably try to reorganize whatever effectives they have left, maybe reorganize the ukrainian government if they still have control of it of try to get back control if not. As the nationalists that they are, they would want to get back the rest of ukraine, but being of course unable to do so they will resort to carry out terror campaign in an act of revenge against both Russia for having invaded them and the EU and NATO for not having supported them enough of for having backstabbed them (since nazi love blaming their Ls on imaginary foe acting from the shadows). They will use western ukraine as a base to launch these terror campaign, making them like some kind of european ISIS.
I think that the nazis will start causing terror all across Europe is a very likely scenario. They will feel betrayed by the west, and they’ve already been establishing links with western nazis all around Europe. Millions of people fled to Europe from Ukraine, and there certainly were many nazis amongst them. Also worth keeping in mind that a huge number of weapons sent to Ukraine ends up going missing, and I’m sure a lot of these weapons have already made their way to terror cells across Europe. The west has unleashed a monster in Ukraine, and it’s inevitably going to bite the hand that’s been feeding it.
The goal of modern propaganda is to get people to repeat it even after it’s no longer official ideology.