how is one supposed to “get nukes” undetected in the context of a global surveillance state? I doubt NK could have pulled it off any later than they did.
Short of Russia or China giving some to them overnight, I guess there really isn’t an option to procure nukes completely undetected. They probably have or are in the process of building new nuclear enrichment sites that haven’t been detected yet since the last ones got bombed, but it’s only a matter of time before US/ Israeli Intel picks up on it. Having access to better air defences, again by collaborating more closely with Russia and China, would help deter most attacks on the site except the most advanced stealth bombers.
So it will essentially be a race to get nukes before the US can sniff out where the production sites are and decide to bomb them. They can’t openly say they are building nukes because that would just give the US and Israel full justification to attack them as they are right now. Instead, Iran can help stall time by trying to enter negotiations again while feigning their commitment to no nuclear enrichment by secretly building the weapons under some mountain (severing ties with the IAEA gives them an advantage), but that requires the political will of the Iranian leadership to lie about their intentions. Hopefully the death of Ayatollah Khamenei and the repeated failures of Pezeshkian to secure a lasting peace will motivate the government in this direction.
Honestly after Trump shredded the original nuclear deal in his first term would’ve been the perfect time to start building nukes, and I strongly believe they could have done so largely undetected during the last decade, but the main problem was and still is the political will to do so.
yea, tbh people were giving nk example but it was obvious they were able to pull that off because they were china’s neighbour. iran is getting bombed just for possessing enriched uranium with clear lack of intention for nukes.
how is one supposed to “get nukes” undetected in the context of a global surveillance state? I doubt NK could have pulled it off any later than they did.
Short of Russia or China giving some to them overnight, I guess there really isn’t an option to procure nukes completely undetected. They probably have or are in the process of building new nuclear enrichment sites that haven’t been detected yet since the last ones got bombed, but it’s only a matter of time before US/ Israeli Intel picks up on it. Having access to better air defences, again by collaborating more closely with Russia and China, would help deter most attacks on the site except the most advanced stealth bombers.
So it will essentially be a race to get nukes before the US can sniff out where the production sites are and decide to bomb them. They can’t openly say they are building nukes because that would just give the US and Israel full justification to attack them as they are right now. Instead, Iran can help stall time by trying to enter negotiations again while feigning their commitment to no nuclear enrichment by secretly building the weapons under some mountain (severing ties with the IAEA gives them an advantage), but that requires the political will of the Iranian leadership to lie about their intentions. Hopefully the death of Ayatollah Khamenei and the repeated failures of Pezeshkian to secure a lasting peace will motivate the government in this direction.
Honestly after Trump shredded the original nuclear deal in his first term would’ve been the perfect time to start building nukes, and I strongly believe they could have done so largely undetected during the last decade, but the main problem was and still is the political will to do so.
yea, tbh people were giving nk example but it was obvious they were able to pull that off because they were china’s neighbour. iran is getting bombed just for possessing enriched uranium with clear lack of intention for nukes.
The DPRK could easily do it again today if they hadn’t already. The fact is Iran is far more infiltrated than the DPRK.
that’s a very ambitious “easily” but i don’t disagree overall.