I did bring up that © might be an immediate risk for getting targeted.

sorry, I don’t know what © means here.

but I am not clear about your estimate probability of systematic elimination of trans people

I do think death camps are a possibility, but the US and Germany are in very different places, and I think the current administration is less blood-thirsty for death camps than they are invested in creating the appearance of fulfilling that blood thirst in their constituents. Trump is under pressure by an anti-trans movement to deliver, and he has done many things to make good on his end of the deal. But I don’t think Trump is anything like Hitler in terms of being a “true believer” of transphobia, and there have been times the anti-trans movement has been very critical and upset with Trump because he’s not willing to go as far as they would like.

I think death camps are a more distant / remote possibility than criminalization and forced detransition in prisons. Florida flirted with using capital punishment as a systematic way to kill trans people, so it’s not like that couldn’t easily go from one to the other - but I think some of the most extreme anti-trans movement leaders are not interested in literally re-creating Nazi programs like T4 and gas chambers as they are invested in the steps that come before: criminalization, forced detransition in prisons, etc.

I think the anti-trans progress in the US has been slower because of the restraint courts and laws still have - and while Trump has done plenty to help erode these things, I don’t think the consensus of scholars is that he has fully succeeded or that a coup has been completed. The Nazis were enabled by a context of eliminating all checks and balances, and we just haven’t seen that process happen in the US yet - but I fully expect Trump to try it if not in the next year, possibly by the end of his presidency.

But regardless, Trump and MAGA do not have the full control of the government in the US, and they have plenty of enemies - and importantly, Trump is old and not likely to live much longer (maybe 10 years?), so even with a successful coup, it’s unclear how long he would remain in power or what he would accomplish in his geriatric years. All this to say, we don’t know whether they will succeed in criminalizing and imprisoning trans people to begin with, let alone trans adults - or what that timeline looks like. I’m inclined to think it could take them >3 years to do so, esp. since even with the current control over the gov’t, Trump failed to get his strongest / most supported anti-trans bill passed: the athletic ban. So I am far less confident than you that death camps are 5 years away, even if it could be more or less than that in reality depending on how the situation deteriorates.

Even in the worst anti-trans states like Texas, they were unable to even get support within their party for a bill to criminalize trans adults as committing “gender identity fraud”. There just isn’t an appetite for this among the Republicans, even in the most extreme states. What I think is more likely are things like public cross-dressing bans, and laws that try to criminalize trans people for engaging in “sexual acts” by living as themselves - but even those laws we haven’t seen proposed let alone successfully passed and put back in law (unlike in the US in the 1970s when cross-dressing was criminal in many jurisdictions across the US).

Also this calls for an advancement in privacy rights, and special protections for trans-related data

I obviously agree, one change I would love to see is that credit reporting agencies like TransUnion not disclose deadnames on credit reports. This essentially outs trans people to landlords, employers, banks, etc.

Can we agree that trans people must collectively and politically organize to advanced levels of resistance and survival? I certainly wish I saw more of that.

While it’s obvious that trans people are the most impacted by anti-trans policies, I don’t think trans people could possibly be successful in their resistance - we are a tiny minority of the population and spread out across the country. We lack the numbers and the capacity to gather in person necessary for a meaningful resistance to arise. Instead, trans people need to recognize we are a weak minority that depends on alliance with larger groups - particularly I think we should seek alliance with women, immigrants, sexual minorities (gay/lesbian/bisexual, etc.), and economic justice movements (e.g. labor unions, consumer advocacy, housing co-ops, etc.).

I also think while it’s obvious that resistance is important, I think resistance and politics in general is a matter of power and resources, and the oppressed are often the least capable of organizing meaningful resistance - that is, trans people most need resistance and survival, but are often least empowered to do so.

So, I tend to think trans people should prioritize their own needs first and foremost, and then as they establish safety, stability, etc. they should seek to cooperate in those alliances and ideally local community to help others out as well.

I’m not sure what you consider “advanced levels of resistance and survival” - but I think placing further demands on trans people to engage politically misplaces responsibility on some of the least capable members of society, and while it would be nice if we could all cooperate and push back together, I don’t think trans people have some kind of unique responsibility to do this, and sometimes prioritizing individual survival is more than we are capable of. I don’t think we should make trans folks feel ashamed for not doing more, esp. when they are in a position of being able to do so little.