Image (of a Jamaat e-Islami campaign rally) and much of the information below is sourced from here and here.
In 2024, the government of Sheikh Hasina, leader of the Awami League, was overthrown in a student-led protest movement which was boosted by US interests. In the interim, Nobel laureate and dyed-in-the-wool neoliberal Muhammad Yunus was made president, and introduced a series of economic and political reforms (e.g. IMF packages and banking sector restructuring) which have sidelined the working class and aligned the country with US financial interests. Regardless of anybody’s personal feelings towards Hasina (who did indeed make many mistakes and caused many deaths), it is now very clear that the reason why Hasina was overthrown was not due to a humanitarian, anti-authoritarian impulse, but because Bangladesh had at least some measure of sovereignty while she was in power, as she accepted Chinese infrastructure investments. Certainly, the US is perfectly comfortable with genocidal dictators if they are allied with US interests.
Last week, the Bangladesh Nationalist Party won over two thirds of parliamentary seats - the Awami League was banned from participating at all, and worker-aligned parties were either disallowed or decided to withdraw from participating due to repression. I haven’t personally been able to nail down what exact economic/foreign policies they want to introduce, but because of what Yunus has set up in the interim, it might not matter that much - the economic stage has been set such that no matter what party took power, they would have to accept a fait accompli. As Vijay Prashad put it, the competition between the parties is reduced to “which faction will administer austerity”?
One of the many upsetting aspects of this election was that the student movement that helped overthrown Hasina have been forced into irrelevance, despite their legitimate grievances. The “Gen Z” protestors, displeased by the prospect of being ruled by the BNP about as much as the Awami League, found themselves with odd bedfellows, and allied with the now-opposition party (the hardline Islamist Jamaat-e-Islami). They are now in a tough bind, lacking much of the necessary left-wing organization to assert a genuine political project.
This is an instructive moment for many people who are desperate for better conditions in countries that are economically struggling, including Iran with its recent protests. If your country has sovereignty from the US, you walk a very dangerous tightrope - how do you organize for better conditions in such a way that it cannot be co-opted by the US to overthrow your government and put something even more terrible in its wake? Shortly after a jubilant revolutionary moment, you are left without influence, power, or even media representation, and now yet further under the repression of Western imperialism. This is one of the many problems that the population of the non-NATO world will need to find ways to overcome.
Last week’s thread is here.
The Imperialism Reading Group is here.
Please check out the RedAtlas!
The bulletins site is here. Currently not used.
The RSS feed is here. Also currently not used.
The Zionist Entity's Genocide of Palestine
Sources on the fighting in Palestine against the temporary Zionist entity. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:
UNRWA reports on Israel’s destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.
English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news.
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.
Mirrors of Telegram channels that have been erased by Zionist censorship.
Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict
Sources:
Defense Politics Asia’s youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don’t want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it’s just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists’ side.
Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.
Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:
Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.
https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR’s former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR’s forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster’s telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a ‘propaganda tax’, if you don’t believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.
Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:
Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.
A reminder that we are now firmly inside the event horizon for war between the US and Iran. As a result, all news is now suspect, oft times used as weapons to decieve or psych out the other side. Tonight there were many reports that US bases in Qatar have been evacuated, but US officials have denied that. True? Doesn’t matter. We have no way of knowing if that is intended as a strategy to make Iran be in a heightened state of readiness all weekend but no attack happens and thereby tire them out, if the denial is an attempt to disuade Iran from striking first because they’ll kill a lot of Americans and thereby guarentee a giant response, some other combination of feights and plots, I haven’t a clue. Just remember that every piece of information we get is being used for something, one way or the other. The dooming on here and elsewhere during the first day or so of the 12 Day War was unbearable. I expect the same this time, but let’s keep a clear head everybody.
I think everybody knows what’s about to happen, and there’s this eerie buzz in the air. A lot of noise about Israel opening shelters, preparing hospitals, etc in preparation for a major war. Like half the American air force has been mustered in the Middle East. Iran is moving around a lot of equipment tonight, and rolling out hardened communication equipment and such. It’s not a good feeling. I hope what I think is going to happen won’t, but if it does (and during Ramadan!) all my best wishes to everybody in Iran.
Ship Believed To Be Carrying Russian Fuel Reportedly On Its Way To Cuba, Challenging U.S. Blockade
Lyon, France. A person died in the margin of a Rima hassan rally for Unbowed France. All the billionaire-owned and even public medias are charging “far left violence”, made a dithyrambic portrait of the victim, presenting him as a sort of chivalrous militant for catholicism, who were spending his week-end helping widows and street orphans, as his body was still warm.
Turns out, he was part of “nationalist revolutionary” groups, came there with his neonazi mate with sticks to kick people’s ass, and the incident was more akin to hooliganism than political violence. Now the neonazis student groups are on national TV whining about how they’re the victims.
US military buildup against Iran update:
The final 6 F-22 Raptors were finally able to get a KC-46 mid air refueling tanker that works, and are now crossing over the Atlantic to RAF Lakenheath in the UK, to join the first 6 F-22s after two failed attempts. The total of 12x F-22s will deploy to the Middle East soon.
There are over 100 mid air refueling tankers forward deployed to strategic locations in the Atlantic, Europe and the Middle East to support both strategic bomber flights from the continental USA and fighter jets in the Middle East.
US tactical fighter aircraft numbers, bases in the Middle East, USS George Ford and USS Abraham Lincoln:
- 12x F-22
- 36x F-15E
- 30x F-35A
- 12x F-35C
- 12x EA-18G (with NGJ pods)
- 6x EA-18G (with TJS pods)
- 12x A-10C
- 24x F-16CM
- 24x F-16CJ
- 84 x F/A-18E/F
252 tactical fighter aircraft.
Israel tactical fighter aircraft numbers:
- 174x F-16s of various blocks and specifications.
- 66x F-15s of various blocks and specifications.
- 48x F-35Is.
288 tactical fighter aircraft.
540 total between the USA and Israel, with over 100 5th generation stealth aircraft.
New Hampshire just banned the dialectical method in what they call the CHARLIE act, named after Charlie Kirk.
Hegel? Owned.
Currently, China, Russia, South Africa, Uruguay, Iran, Brazil, Mexico, Belarus, the African Union, and Vietnam have openly supported Cuba diplomatically. Nicaragua unexpectedly canceled its visa waiver agreement with Cuba, without explaining whether it did so to prevent Cubans from traveling there or whether the United States pressured it to do so.
Canada, which in the past had pursued a more independent policy toward Cuba, said and did nothing, apart from expressing annoyance that its tourists were forced to return home earlier than planned and blaming “the Cuban authorities, who refused to refuel Canadian planes.” Mexico is the only nation to have sent any form of aid to Cuba since this crisis started.
Der Spiegel reports that the CIA held multiple meetings with the Nord Stream saboteurs, and were initially encouraging and supportive.
They say the CIA eventually stopped supporting them and advised against it. I rather think this is yet another limited hangout.
According to SPIEGEL research, the secret commando found a new sponsor: a Ukrainian private individual. He covered a large part of the approximately $300,000 in costs for equipment, boat rental, and explosives, according to insiders.
Der Spiegel doesn’t point out that going through middlemen is like the CIA’s favourite thing. Gives plausible deniability.
Machine translation of the whole article (emphasis added by me):
The first Russian attack on the Ukrainian capital had barely been repelled when, in the spring of 2022, men from the US foreign intelligence agency CIA and Ukrainian sabotage specialists met in Kyiv’s Podil district. It was apparently a familiar group; they had known each other for years.
The Ukrainians, according to insiders, had brought an idea: they wanted to blow up the Nord Stream pipelines. These pipes transported billions of cubic meters of gas from Russia to Germany, thus financing Moscow’s war against their country. The Americans apparently liked the plan, Ukrainian participants later told confidants.
Further meetings between the CIA representatives and the masterminds of the attacks on the gas pipelines on the bottom of the Baltic Sea are said to have followed. SPIEGEL was able to speak with several people in Ukraine who reported details of the meetings. According to their accounts, the Americans knew about the attack plans much earlier than previously known.
According to the report, US agents appeared to the planners of the Nord Stream attack in the spring of 2022 to be at least sympathetic listeners. Insiders report that they exchanged technical details of the sabotage operation.
Huh, so not only “they held encouraging meetings” as the headline implies, but also they literally gave Ukraine all the info they were missing on how to do it. Sounds a lot more active than what the headline implies.
Was this true? Confronted with the findings, a CIA spokeswoman called the account “completely and utterly false.” The CIA declined to specify what exactly was wrong with it.
Despite the US intelligence agency’s denial, SPIEGEL has decided to report on these events. The editorial team has known the Ukrainian sources for years, and their information has proven accurate. They were aware of details of the attack early on, details which were later confirmed by German investigators.
The accounts make an already sensitive issue for the government in Berlin even more uncomfortable.
Former Ukrainian commando Serhiy K. is currently in pretrial detention in Hamburg. He is alleged to have been involved in the detonation of the pipelines in September 2022. Several men and a woman sailed across the Baltic Sea on a rented yacht called “Andromeda.” Near the island of Bornholm, divers placed military-grade explosives on the gas pipelines on the seabed.
According to a detention order issued by the Federal Court of Justice in the case of Serhiy K., which became public in mid-January, the operation was “highly likely” state-directed. The state in question is Ukraine—the very country that the German government has been supporting with billions of euros since the Russian attack.
We’ll come back to Ukraine being “the directing state” after a few paragraphs
Now it has emerged that US intelligence officials apparently knew about the attack plan in its early stages and initially allegedly did not object. According to the investigation, they only later changed their minds and warned the Ukrainians against carrying out the plan—to no avail.
Serhiy K. is associated with Roman Chervinsky, a specialist in covert operations and sabotage who previously worked for the Ukrainian Security Service (SBU). He is considered the mastermind behind the attacks. Now 51, Chervinsky was part of an elite unit established by the CIA after the 2014 Maidan Revolution
Oh, so a CIA-trained operative blew up the Nordstream with, at the very least, knowledge of this by the CIA and technical assistance from the CIA. Makes it seem more like it was the US behind this all along
The so-called 5th Directorate of the SBU (Security Service of Ukraine) made a name for itself with spectacular operations against pro-Russian separatists. Targeted killings were also part of the secret unit’s repertoire. When Chervinsky transferred to the Ukrainian military intelligence service HUR in 2019, the covert work against Moscow continued – often with the help of the US.
Nooooo, this is Russian propaganda!!! How could he have been acting against Russia with support from the USA if the war began in 2022!!!
After a failed operation, Chervinsky had to leave the intelligence service in 2020. But with the Russian invasion of Ukraine, his skills were needed again. Initially, the sabotage expert helped defend Kyiv. When the Russians were repelled at the gates of the capital, the old group of commando specialists reunited – this time with the special forces of the Ukrainian army.
In principle, it didn’t matter over the years which service or unit you belonged to, says a former Ukrainian member of these commando units. “We worked together with the Americans.”
I suspect this is slightly pointing towards collaboration between Nazis and the US agencies
In the spring of 2022, new ideas were apparently needed to inflict significant damage on Russia, the enemy in the war. An old idea resurfaced among the men: attacking the Nord Stream pipelines.
The pipelines in the Baltic Sea had long been a thorn in the side of Ukraine and most Western nations. Nord Stream allowed Russia to supply Europe directly, bypassing Ukraine’s gas network. Kyiv lost crucial transit fees as a result. At the same time, the pipelines made Germany, the most powerful country in Europe, dependent on the Kremlin. Without them, the Russians would lose a significant political bargaining chip, the saboteurs reasoned.
The pipelines had been a thorn in the side of most Western nations by checks notes providing cheap energy to Europe? As for dependence from the Kremlin, diversifying the supply of energy among different geopoltical blocks can hardly be argued to be dependence, dependence is what Germany has now, when it relies exclusively on USA liquefied fossil gas for its energy supply, instead of being able to choose fossil gas from Russia and from the USA (most of it from the former due to, you know, it being cheaper). If Germany wanted energy independence it shouldn’t have allowed the destruction of the European photovoltaic industry or destroyed its nuclear power plants.
The US, too, had never been a fan of the more than 1,200-kilometer-long gas pipelines running from Russia to Germany. In early 2022, then-US President Joe Biden, in light of the planned commissioning of Nord Stream 2, threatened to end the project: if Russia invaded Ukraine, there would be “no more Nord Stream 2.”
For weeks and months, the Ukrainians developed a plan to have divers plant bombs on the pipelines. They considered various routes and vessels, deliberated about the explosives, and searched for suitable men and women capable of diving to depths of up to 80 meters. The saboteurs even gave the operation a codename: Operation “Diameter.”
According to insiders, the operation was ultimately approved in Ukraine by the then-army chief, Valery Zalushny. However, it was not approved by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. The secret commando unit did not inform the presidential administration, sources in Kyiv claim.
At the same time, according to Ukrainian insiders, there were repeated meetings with the Americans to discuss the planned operation. “They told our guys: That’s good, that works,” says one man familiar with the discussions. The Ukrainians claim not to have received any warnings at that point; quite the opposite.
“If you place the bombs in this manner, it will work” is more than encouragement, it’s explicit participation in the operation.
According to her account, a signal of support came from the CIA as early as the second meeting: Go ahead with it. And even more: On the Ukrainian side, the impression even arose that the US agents could help with financing the plan
Waiting for the evidence to come out in 50 years that the money circled back to the CIA :D
The CIA declined to comment on this when contacted by SPIEGEL. The intelligence agency merely stated that SPIEGEL’s research was “extremely inaccurate” and should “not be read as factual information.”
In the spring of 2022, according to US security sources, Washington’s interests were completely different. At that time, the focus was on organizing the greatest possible support for Ukraine. Why would the US condone an attack on the infrastructure of an ally?
Der Spiegel reports that the CIA held multiple meetings with the Nord Stream saboteurs
:o who wouoda thunk!!! Tankies carrying the eternal burden of being right
Also, if only there were a word to refer to someone who knowingly allows someone else to commit a crime… Like, we could probably prosecute it if they accomplish the crime in the end. Oh well, only speculation.
Edit: the article clearly states that the CIA shared the know-how of how to do this, and the “Ukrainian operatives” who carried it out had been trained by the CIA since at least 2014. The headline is extremely misleading, they CIA is not just an accomplice, it’s a full actor in this.
Probably the CIA withdrew support of those “saboteurs” because they realized their plan just wasn’t feasible, so the U.S. would just have to do it itself. Which it then did.
This is all fake. It was done by US Navy seals deployed from the USS Kearsarge during and after the Baltic military exercises
Very interesting article on Iranian air defences with satellite imagery.
It looks like Iran is trying to pair the missiles /launchers of Russian/Soviet origin air defence systems which had their radars destroyed by previous Israeli and US airstrikes, with Iranian air defence systems and radars.
S-300PMU-2/SA-20 Transporter Erector Launchers (TELs) paired with an Iranian Bavar-373 system, but no 30N6 series Tombstone/Flap Lid fire control radar from the SA-20 visible (destruction of at least one such radar has been confirmed by previous satellite imagery, included in the article):
S-200V/SA-5B surface to air missile and launcher paired with an Iranian Khordad 15 system, no Square Pair fire control radar or Tail King search radar visible from the S-200 (Israel destroyed a bunch of these last year in June when targeting S-200 sites):
Looking at this, I have doubts that Iran is getting advanced air defence systems or radars from Russia and China, given the lengths Iran is going to try revive these systems which had their radars destroyed. Could China nor Russia seriously not spare a half century old Square Pair or Tail King radar from old stock or even a museum? Can China not spare 4x 30N6 radars for the Iranian SA-20s, China have over 100 between Russian purchased systems and domestic copies. Or maybe they supplied them a ton of advanced stuff and this act of trying to get these systems working with Iranian radars is all a ruse. But it doesn’t look good.
There was voter and election fraud in Georgia, by Elon Musk
Members of the Georgia State Elections Board voted Wednesday to issue a formal letter of reprimand
LMAO, a formal letter of reprimand!!!
https://newrepublic.com/post/206857/georgia-voter-fraud-elon-musk
India will continue buying Russian oil https://news.az/news/india-makes-final-decision-on-russian-energy-resources
It may be hard to believe that Trump lied about this exact same thing again
- The state appears to be holding firm despite the internal strains and external threats. The rebellion has been crushed–most casualties were in the northwestern and the southern border provinces. There is no defection at the top levels. There is no Delcy. The chain of command remains intact. Three figures have emerged as the main power centres–Larijani, Shamkhani and Ghalibaf–while Pezeshkian has been effectively sidelined. “He is the right man in the right place but at the wrong time,” one of them told me.
- Pezehskian, Araghchi and the reform bloc pushes for a compromise deal to avert war and secure some sanctions relief. “The leader doesn’t prefer this,” the diplomat said. Still, they want to exhaust diplomatic options so the state can close ranks across factions of the elite if war breaks out. But both reformists and conservatives have drawn a firm line on the missile programme. Reformists argue concessions can be made on enrichment (including shipping out 60% enriched uranium) if the US is prepared to lift at least some sanctions. But even they are unwilling to negotiate over the missile programme.
- Iran knows the scope for a compromise is very thin. “Even if we make a deal on the nuclear programme, Israel would still call us a threat. If we abandon the missiles to avoid U.S. strikes today, Israel will attack us anyway, maybe in a few months. So why should we surrender our missiles,” said the think tanker. Trump has boxed himself in. He probably thought that Iran would capitulate under pressure. But what he is asking for is Iran’s disarmament. Having built up a significant military presence in the region, he can’t easily step back without extracting major concessions. “But we can’t give him what he asks for,” said the analyst. This means the possibility for a conflict is very high.
- What will Iran do if it were struck? This time, Iran sees any attack as existential. It has to either resist the US-Israel combine with full force or go down. If they accept a limited strike, there would be another attack a few months down the line. “It’s a different kind of mowing the lawn strategy.” If the state survives the initial blow, which they believe is likely, Iran would strike Israel and US bases in the region, one of them said. Within Iran, hardliners still argue that accepting Trump’s ceasefire in June was a mistake. They think they were becoming more effective in striking Israel with fewer missiles when the war progressed. And this time, they are ready to fight a long war. “The leader has given clear instructions that the survival of the republic is paramount.”
US military buildup against Iran update: there are 48 tactical fighters on the move towards the Middle East, 24x from bases in Europe and 24x currently crossing the Atlantic. Including F-22 Raptors, by far the most expensive tactical fighter aircraft to fly in the United States Air Force.
From Europe:
- 12x F-16CM from the 31st Fighter Wing, Aviano air base, Italy.
- 12 F-16CJ with the HTS (HARM Targeting System) from the 52nd Fighter Wing, 480th Fighter Squadron in Spangdahlem Air Base, Germany for additional AGM-88E AARGM shooters to suppress air defences.
From the continental USA:
- 12 F-16CJ with the HTS (HARM Targeting System) from the 169th Fighter Wing, in McEntire Joint National Guard Base, South Carolina for additional AGM-88E AARGM shooters to suppress air defences.
- 12x F-22 Raptor 5th generation stealth air superiority fighters from the 1st Fighter Wing, Langley Air Force Base, Virginia, to secure air superiority and provide fighter escort and fighter sweep.
This would mean the total number of US tactical fighter available in the coming days in the Middle East are:
- 12x F-22
- 24x F-15E
- 30x F-35A
- 12x F-35C
- 12x EA-18G (with NGJ pods)
- 12x A-10C
- 24x F-16CM
- 24x F-16CJ
- 36x F/A-18E/F
186 tactical fighter aircraft. If/when the USS Gerald Ford aircraft carrier arrives, that number will be 240, with an additional 48x F/A-18E/F and 6x EA-18G with TJS pods.
Also expect tonight a flight of 1x E11 BACN (Battlefield Airborne Communications Node) and 4x E3 Sentry AWACS/Airborne Early Warning & Control aircraft to arrive in Germany. That would total 6x E-3 Sentry…
A U-2S Dragon Lady ISR aircraft has also been forward deployed to the Middle East. This enables communication between the F-22s and F-35s datalink systems, as they use different datalinks that require a translation layer to communicate with each other.
2x of the 4x expected E-3G Sentry AWACS were visible on globe.adsbexchange.com
There are 16x active E-3G Sentries. 4x would be 25% of the available fleet, 6x would be 37.5% of the available fleet.
Images of the F-16CJs from the 169th Fighter Wing of the South Carolina Air National Guard were pictured landing at Lajes Air Base, on the Portuguese island of Terceira in the Atlantic ocean. Resolution is poor, but good enough to make out the AN/ASQ-213 HARM Targeting System (HTS) pod, circled in red, equipped on the F-16CJ, used to geolocate emitters/radars trying to track the F-16CJ, which can then be fired upon by AGM-88E AARGM (Advanced Anti Radiation Guided Missile, and upgrade to the guidance hardware and control algorithms of the AGM-88 HARM, allowing it to be used against relocateable air defence systems using “shutdown” and “pop up” tactics. Due to the upgraded guidance and control, and high speed of the missile, around Mach 2.9, it can be used against time sensitive targets other than radars, such as ballistic missile launchers or helicopters on the ground before takeoff). Wild Weasel tactics, baiting out air defences to reveal their location. Specialised hardware used for this mission already equipped:
The E-11A BACN has arrived at Ramstein Air Force Base, Germany:
This will be the 4th E-11A BACN in the Middle East. The total size of the US fleet is 8. 50% of the E-11A BACN fleet is going to be in the Middle East…
It boggles the mind to imagine the amount of financial resources employed in manufacturing and maintaining 240 tactical fighters. The amount of people who could be lifted out of poverty, the progress that could be made in science… it’s shocking how much humanity as a whole could be in a much better place if all of these resources were put to good use. The US is truly the Great Satan, the greatest obstacle to human development in modern history.
in world history tbh
No need to imagine, the cost per flight hour is public information:
You can also see just how much more expensive the F-22 is to fly than any other tactical fighter, which is why their deployment is significant.
That’s a lot of aircrafts, so is it safe to say strikes will happen when the aircraft carrier arrives ?
I know they aim for total air supremacy, but at such a numbers, I guess they really want no missiles to hit the genocidal entity? I say that with barely any knowledge of all that stuff work, you’re absolutely doing a lot to this community!
The US doesn’t need the second aircraft carrier really. They can start airstrikes before it arrives if it wants. It’s impossible to predict an if or when, but F-22s are an ominous sign.
Yes I expect left of launch defeat of missile bases, ballistic missile launchers, etc to be a big part of any opening strikes. The US has a lot of advanced cruise missiles with two way datalinks (Tomahawk, JASSM) that can be retargeted in flight and hit both stationary and mobile targets for an opening strike action against missile bases to entomb them , air defence systems, command and control and other time sensitive targets before they decay, etc.
42x F-35s, 24x F-16CJ and 12x EA-18Gs with NGJ pods is a massive suppression of enemy air defences (SEAD) force, honestly anyone except for China is very vulnerable to that. 42x F-35 can launch 336 Small Diameter Bombs (SDBs) for example. F-22s vs the Iranian Air Force is overkill, again everyone except China with the J-20s and J-35s would be very vulnerable. 12x F-22s can launch 72x AIM-120D-3 AMRAAM radar guided long range air to air missiles, these are very long range missiles fired from stealth aircraft. The AIM-120D beat the previous US record of 127mi/204km in a test when fired from an F-15C, the AIM-120D-3 is a misnomer, it’s actually a new variant of the AIM-120 with increased range that should have been called AIM-120E or AIM-120F, everything about the missile is different from the AIM-120D and it just shares the D name for budgetary reasons. The F-22 broke the F-15Cs range record sometime in 2024.
Your depth of knowledge on this is stuff is so impressive and enlightening. Thank you for sharing!
do you by any chance know which NATO countries are supplying aircraft for this buildup? or is it all US aircraft?
All US aircraft. The UK has deployed a few aircraft to Qatar and Cyprus in a “defensive capacity”. And there’s obviously Israel with 200+ fighter jets, of which 48x are F-35Is. And their air launched ballistic missiles.
i see. would be interesting to see what other air bases are used in europe apart from italy and germany. i am thinking about how a war with iran will be spun as “trumps war” and the eu will just pretend like nato supplies are not being used for it. showing the interconnected nature of nato would be quite useful for organising
Really NATO bases, islands part of NATO countries’ territory, etc, are only being used as logistical pit stops, all the hardware and munitions in an offensive capacity will be USA (and Israel if they join in). The UK jets will probably shoot down sone incoming drones and cruise missiles. Europe wants these NATO bases a lot more than the US does, Bush Jr wanted to pull the US out of these bases during his presidency 20 years ago and the Europeans begged the US to stay.
The one exception to that is Diego Garcia, which may be used to house offensive aircraft/bombers.
Well the F-22s are finally moving. If the Ford moving across the Atlantic is just a distraction, then we could even see a strike starting this weekend. Would be a little nuts to do that during the start of Ramadan (which begins either tomorrow or Thursday), but they’re not called the Great Satan for nothing!
The Ford GSG is probably a lot closer than I thought or most thought. There was evidence it started moving on February 13th (which I posted in a reply to Mk Ultra wide) and the US Navy just posted this graphic, showing it close to the Strait of Gibraltar:
It might not even go through the Red Sea to Oman, it may just stay in the Mediterranean to deter Hezbollah for instance. Aircraft can make the trip to Iran with mid air refuelling if needed.
I think the US would probably wait until the end of the Winter Olympics, if the decision is made to strike. But the reality is that they can strike at anytime.
Now we’re at numbers that were similar to Desert Storm 2.
Is this just going to be an air bombing campaign? Or are they going to combine it with special ops plans like in Venezuela but at a larger scale?
Chances the US tries to go in and kill/kidnap a religious leader?
The 2003 invasion of Iraq had more than double the tactical fighters involved, 240 now vs 655 total…
But (massive but) you can do a lot more with a lot less when it comes to modern aircraft and precision guided munitions like the Small Diameter Bomb (SDB), and modern ISR. Only 2/3s of munitions dropped from aircraft in the 2003 invasion of Iraq were precision guided. All munitions are now precision guided. An F-35 can carry 8x SDBs per aircraft, all in internal weapons bays. The F-111s that plinked thousands of tanks during the 1991 Gulf war would usually sortie with 2x 500lb paveway laser guided bombs and required escort that the F-35s won’t need, or will need a lot less of. So in a way this force now in 2026 is a lot more powerful than that which provided air cover for the 2003 invasion. 42x F-35s, SDBs, and 12x F-22s are massive force multipliers that weren’t around in 2003, only the F-117 was around then at the tactical fighter level. The F-117 is far inferior to the F-35.
If the decision is made to strike, I expect this to be airstrikes only for the majority of the time. Decapitation strikes and killing political leadership is always an option if “regime change” is the goal. I think US Special Forces will only go into Iran to seize the uranium enriched to 60% in a case of instability, government breakdown or other actors in the region making a beeline for it. The Taliban has already made noise about “supporting Iran”. Maybe they are actually crazy enough to try get the uranium if Iran’s government breaks down.
Copium Iran falls but the Taliban nuke Tel Aviv, would be the most insane self own in history
I’m including Israel’s fighters. Must bring us up closer to 400-500 right?
Israel have 288 tactical fighter aircraft, 174x F-16s of various blocks and specifications, 66x F-15s of various variants, and 48x F-35Is.
That would be 488 total tactical fighters. And much more importantly, 102 stealth aircraft (90 F-35 and 12 F-22). For context, only 59 operational F-117s were ever built, a vastly inferior aircraft to modern stealth planes, it didn’t even have a functional radio antenna on missions, no radar, no radar warning receiver, no electronic countermeasures/jamming, no air to air ability. The F-117 was essentially a manned reusable “stealth cruise missile” that relied completely on other aircraft for escort and support, and flew in and out on a pre planned flight path, a vulnerability that could be exploited if you knew the flight path (That’s how the Serbs shot one down). Modern 5th generation stealth aircraft are completely different, full of advanced sensors and equipment… There is no context or historical parallel for what over 100 advanced 5th generation stealth fighters can do if a joint Israeli - US operation happens. 90 F-35s is 720 SDBs.
There are rumours that a further 18x F-15Es will arrive in the coming days, which would put the US total at 258, and the US - Israel total at 506.
And we can probably assume that even in the best case scenario of Iran having Chinese radar tech, the US will play around any radar shadow these may have and will find the gaps.
All of this doesn’t solve their ship problem. I do not believe they can stop a ship from being sunk in a full confrontation. The US will establish their usual air supremacy and capability to bomb the country however they please but it’s going to cost them more than it’s ever cost them in the past.
All of this doesn’t solve their ship problem. I do not believe they can stop a ship from being sunk in a full confrontation
The ships are far away, over 700km for the aircraft carrier. This limits Iranian options to target them, to anti ship weapons with a range of over 700km, anti ship ballistic missiles and cruise missiles. Iranian cruise missiles aren’t stealthy, they’re easy to spot and shoot down. A bigger problem for the US would be a swarm of long range cruise missiles. Iranian anti ship ballistic missiles are the bigger issue for the US, but long range kill chains are difficult (the US only needs to shoot down missiles on target) and aircraft carriers are protected by AEGIS ballistic missile defence, SM-3 and SM-6 interceptors for ballistic missiles. How many Iranian ballistic missiles are both anti ship capable and have a range over 700km? That limits the Iranian arsenal to more exotic weapons limited in number. I think what could happen is if Iran manages to fire enough long range anti ship ballistic missiles on target, they exhaust US interceptor stocks of SM-3 and SM-6 quickly, forcing a retreat. That would probably be a realistic best case scenario for Iran.
Any opening US strike would also target Iranian missile bases and anti ship capabilities. That’s the big question, how good is US left of launch defeat? That has a big say in how many missiles and drones US forces will have to intercept.
If there are any US warships in the Persian Gulf however, they are very vulnerable if Iran can get shots off. Those LCS ships on anti mine duty for example.
700km is not far away when an Abu Mahdi missile can launch from subs.
It’s regime change or bust, in my opinion. They will throw the kitchen sink at Iran, even using nukes if all else fails. But they will likely start with targeted strikes to encourage another internal rebellion. The current massive US buildup will (for the moment) exist to deter Iranian responses.
Including F-22 Raptors
Well then
Yeah, and 50% of the E-11A BACN fleet and 37.5% of the E-3G Sentry fleet that are currently operational are also heading to the Middle East. It’s quite ominous.
Telegraph - Here’s how the monarchy survives the fallout from Andrew
Me ranting and summarizing the article, not the article text which says nothing anyway
An extremely long article that basically says nothing but it does reveal the crisis management strategy:
Prince Andrew is individually responsible for this. He was basically an errant playboy who went too far.
It was not his role in the apparatus of power to be Britain’s envoy in the global power network. No, he was off-script here. He wasn’t an agent of British power here, he was abusing trust.
Queen Elizabeth was a loving mother. She wasn’t fully aware of her son being a nonce. Even though, as stated in the exact same article, the entire palace household knew he was a bully and a scumbag. But I guess the queen didn’t know. Or maybe she thought it was normal? I dunno.
Prince William is notoriously intolerant of rudeness to his staff. Kensington Palace has sought a “CEO”, remodelling slightly to resemble something closer to a company.
Ah but don’t worry because the monarchy is going to be remodeled as a corporation.
And the problem to be solved here is rudeness.
Don’t fear… future nonces will be polite to their staff.
And the article repeatedly refers to the royal family as a “firm” which requires modernized operations.
The future of the British monarchy is a slim, efficient, polite, firm that will run Britain efficiently.
I see the future and it isn’t liberal democracy. The USA will head towards technofeudalism but the UK, typically, moves always towards a fusion of tradition and modernity.
Sergei Glazyev dropped a few truth bombs today:
“The Western economic system is losing its effectiveness and its leadership. The center of the global economy has shifted east. Today, China and India account for the majority of global economic growth. Other countries in South and East Asia are joining them. There is no longer any doubt that a historic global transition has occurred. The ‘pax Americana’ has collapsed before our very eyes.”
“They still consider themselves the center of the universe and are trying to maintain their hegemony in a situation where, in terms of economic efficiency and development management, they have already failed. They have already lost the economic competition with China, but they cannot admit it.”
https://www.politnavigator.net/pax-americana-uzhe-razvalilsya-no-eshhe-ne-znaet-ob-ehtom.html
